“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” — Mark Twain
Crypto markets tend to prove this adage every four years.

TL;DR

  • The next Bitcoin halving is projected for April 2028 (block 1,050,000).
  • Block rewards will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.
  • Historically, halvings compress supply, spark miner capitulation, and precede bull runs 6‑18 months later.

1. Quick Refresher: What Is a Halving?

Bitcoin’s code reduces the block subsidy roughly every 210,000 blocks. This baked‑in scarcity drives the long‑term supply curve toward the 21 million BTC cap.

2. Economic Ripples

| Cycle | Halving Date | Price 6 mo. later | 18 mo. later | |——-|————–|——————-|————–| | 2012 | Nov 28 | $13 → $120 | $1 100 | | 2016 | Jul 9 | $650 → $760 | $19 500 | | 2020 | May 11 | $8 640 → $28 000| $64 000 |

Pattern: muted first, explosive later.

3. Miner Dynamics

  • Older ASICs retire, slashing hash‑rate temporarily.
  • Surviving farms often relocate to regions with sub‑$0.03/kWh electricity.

4. How to Position Yourself

  1. Accumulate, don’t chase. DCA well before hype peaks.
  2. Review security. Hardware wallets > custodial.
  3. Diversify exposures. Consider hash‑rate ETFs or mining‑rig royalties.

5. Risks & Wild Cards

  • Regulatory curveballs (e.g., global ESG crackdowns).
  • Unexpected macro shocks—remember 2020’s COVID plunge?

Key Takeaways

Halvings rarely pump on the day; they reset the four‑year narrative. Strategy: be early, stay solvent, and zoom‑out.